Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 16 | 19 | 328 |
| MIN | 27 | 012 | 011 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10MINConnor DewarAssists: Declan Chisholm, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:26CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 19:39MINJonas BrodinAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:35CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 11:02CARStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Jack Drury, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:41CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:09MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:53CARMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:03CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:00MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis5:14
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Fast – Noesen – Kotkaniemi3:54
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis2:46
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov2:00
xG 0.01–0.04 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:54
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:28
xG 0.20–0.37 (36%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:11
xG 0.58–0.82 (41%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy13:51
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau5:50
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi3:13
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Dewar6:20
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Chisholm15:54
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Middleton – Faber13:45
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
- Merrill – Mermis10:06
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).