Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 015 | 08 | 134 |
| COL | 215 | 36 | 06 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00DALLogan StankovenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 2:08COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 5:58COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 7:09COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 7:58COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 14:15COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.24 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:28COLBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20DALWyatt Johnston: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:21COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min
- P3 12:19DALJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston10:58
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:55
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel5:20
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Dellandrea2:13
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley17:53
xG 0.86–0.21 (81%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää2:43
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Hanley2:34
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:47
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Kiviranta6:12
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Parise – Johansen – Drouin10:12
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor9:53
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews3:25
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:17
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard12:49
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).