Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 212 | 112 | 17 | 440 |
| VAN | 214 | 112 | 08 | 01 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23VANNils HoglanderAssists: Tyler Myers, Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:43VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:13PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 9:36PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:05VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Elias Pettersson, Thatcher Demko · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 9:45PITLars EllerAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 1:42PITErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:00VANFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P1 7:12PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:07PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:34PITJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:44VANNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:47VANTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:45PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 5:59VANElias Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:58VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Puustinen – O'Connor9:09
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Harkins – Puustinen2:14
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Smith – Rakell12:22
xG 0.77–0.84 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Eller – Puljujarvi – Bemstrom5:15
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ruhwedel – Graves10:07
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph11:15
xG 0.35–0.69 (33%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:57
xG 0.78–1.25 (38%)attempts 15–24goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Mikheyev9:37
xG 1.01–0.33 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Miller – Boeser – Suter11:43
xG 0.83–0.24 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Blueger – Lafferty6:45
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 16–2goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Garland – Bains8:56
xG 0.07–0.55 (11%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers10:35
xG 1.29–0.44 (75%)attempts 21–10goals 1–1
- Hronek – Hughes17:36
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Juulsen11:14
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).