Tue, Feb 27, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New Jersey Devils 7, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 318 | 413 | 744 |
| SJS | 112 | 013 | 16 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:17SJSNico SturmAssists: Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:29NJDJesper BrattAssists: Timo Meier, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:06NJDJack HughesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:08NJDKevin BahlGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 2:41NJDColin MillerAssists: Nico Hischier, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 5:01NJDBrendan SmithAssists: Ondrej Palat, Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 6:57NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes, John Marino · Slap, 0.30 xG6–1
- P3 7:57NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–1
- P3 12:33SJSJustin BaileyAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.01 xG7–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:23SJSHenry Thrun: Interference2 min
- P2 10:21SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Holding2 min
- P2 14:09NJDAlexander Holtz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Lazar – Hughes9:56
xG 1.18–0.79 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier10:44
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 3–0
- Tierney – Meier – Holtz2:00
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Toffoli – Mercer10:19
xG 0.56–0.88 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Bahl15:04
xG 1.66–0.55 (75%)attempts 20–10goals 4–1
- Smith – Nemec2:39
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Hughes7:37
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Bailey – Carpenter6:13
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Labanc – Sturm – Barabanov9:43
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund12:12
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund13:54
xG 0.87–1.50 (37%)attempts 19–23goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Okhotiuk12:46
xG 1.12–0.37 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Emberson – Okhotiuk2:40
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Emberson14:09
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 14–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).