Thu, Feb 29, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 315 | 113 | 436 |
| BOS | 316 | 17 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:34BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:04BOSJesper BoqvistAssists: Jakub Lauko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 16:54BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 1:48VGKPaul CotterAssists: Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore · Bat, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 6:57VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Brendan Brisson · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P2 16:32BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 17:46VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 5:01VGKChandler StephensonSHAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 15:23BOSMason LohreiPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:47BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 3:08VGKKeegan Kolesar: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:35VGKSheldon Rempal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Brisson11:19
xG 1.11–0.58 (66%)attempts 21–8goals 1–2
- Stephenson – Barbashev – Amadio13:11
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter9:48
xG 0.32–0.17 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Froese – Rempal – Morelli7:22
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo15:43
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 23–15goals 1–2
- McNabb – Theodore17:10
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud10:34
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBrazeau – Boqvist – Lauko8:04
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 17–2goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Zacha – DeBrusk8:24
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak13:20
xG 0.71–1.12 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Heinen – Frederic – Geekie9:13
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Lohrei12:42
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Carlo – Wotherspoon3:16
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy2:30
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).