Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 19 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 331 |
| FLA | 111 | 114 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:24MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Arber Xhekaj, David Savard · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:08FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 19:59MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:27MTLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 13:05FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Sam Reinhart stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 5. FLA Anton Lundell scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:01FLAKevin Stenlund: Holding2 min
- P1 15:16MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:55FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLJake Evans: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:50MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:03MTLDavid Savard: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:26MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21FLAEvan Rodrigues: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:43FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Pearson – White – Ylonen7:01
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:12
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy5:23
xG 0.06–0.31 (15%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:10
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj16:06
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 16–22goals 2–0
- Kovacevic – Harris8:54
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle14:51
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk7:50
xG 0.98–0.16 (86%)attempts 17–2goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart6:26
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk4:42
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Cousins – Rodrigues – Lundell3:58
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov11:26
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola13:18
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:46
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).