Thu, Feb 29, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 18 | 06 | 126 |
| DAL | 310 | 010 | 116 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:41DALJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:17DALLogan StankovenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 13:24WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 18:50DALRoope HintzENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.46 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:48DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36WPGDylan Samberg: Holding2 min
- P3 6:07WPGAlex Iafallo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Monahan – Ehlers – Iafallo12:45
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Namestnikov – Connor5:40
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:05
xG 0.27–0.45 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron2:35
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:54
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:54
xG 0.74–0.84 (47%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:20
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston10:57
xG 1.51–0.25 (86%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:03
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:21
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Dellandrea11:48
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist11:40
xG 1.50–0.21 (88%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley18:26
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 24–14goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:59
xG 0.58–0.45 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).