Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 010 | 017 | 134 |
| NSH | 213 | 16 | 312 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51MINConnor DewarAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:40NSHYakov TreninAssists: Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 10:48NSHCole SmithGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 17:55NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 1:32NSHRoman JosiAssists: Colton Sissons, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 8:03NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 13:57NSHRyan McDonaghAssists: Luke Evangelista, Colton Sissons · Slap, 0.18 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:42MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:42NSHRyan O'Reilly: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:53MINMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:35NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49MINMats Zuccarello: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:49NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:09MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:09NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:52NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:23MINJake Lucchini: Interference2 min
- P3 3:16NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Duhaime – Dewar9:50
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi8:26
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–3
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:43
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lettieri – Lucchini9:43
xG 0.10–0.50 (17%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin4:16
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Merrill – Chisholm4:03
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill8:57
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:00
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista9:16
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass8:22
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:43
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:17
xG 1.08–0.37 (74%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- McDonagh – Josi2:19
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn12:27
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).