Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 018 | 010 | 05 | 033 |
| SEA | 18 | 08 | 112 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25SEAOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Will Borgen · Bat, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 15:02SEAAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:23PITRyan Graves: Holding2 min
- P1 17:24SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:01SEAJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P2 13:30SEABrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:37PITRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07PITLars Eller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Puljujarvi – Bemstrom4:35
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – O'Connor3:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Smith – Rakell6:06
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Puustinen – O'Connor7:38
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Graves10:10
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:53
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:59
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:10
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Tolvanen2:11
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tolvanen – Kartye6:40
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Yamamoto – Kartye2:08
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:06
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin11:08
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:29
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).