Thu, Feb 29, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 6, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 310 | 113 | 630 |
| SJS | 111 | 29 | 18 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47SJSAnthony DuclairAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Nikita Okhotiuk · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:07ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Alex Killorn, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 4:37ANABrett LeasonSHAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 5:18ANAAlex KillornAssists: Adam Henrique, Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 10:26SJSMike HoffmanPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 15:40SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P2 17:35ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 18:41ANAAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 9:30SJSAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–4
- P3 19:36ANAIsac LundeströmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG6–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:24ANAAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:45SJSWilliam Eklund: Holding2 min
- P2 6:19ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 9:20ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:40ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50SJSKyle Burroughs: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50SJSFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51SJSJustin Bailey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:05ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:05SJSWilliam Eklund: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24ANAJackson LaCombe: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:05SJSKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Strome – Lundeström4:40
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Henrique – Carlsson8:16
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Jones4:13
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Leason – McTavish11:54
xG 0.24–0.70 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mintyukov6:14
xG 0.74–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – LaCombe2:42
xG 0.11–0.03 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Gudas – LaCombe5:17
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Duclair – Zetterlund10:29
xG 1.01–0.66 (60%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund9:15
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bailey – Carpenter4:36
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Sturm2:04
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Okhotiuk2:02
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Okhotiuk6:53
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro6:12
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).