Fri, Mar 1, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 05 | 07 | 223 |
| WSH | 05 | 39 | 27 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 18:23PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Egor Zamula, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 4:34WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:55WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Max Pacioretty, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 17:45WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Rasmus Sandin · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 6:04WSHAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 15:38WSHDylan StromeAssists: Max Pacioretty, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:35WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:56PHICam York: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:49WSHMax Pacioretty: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:39PHISean Walker: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:39WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:21PHISean Walker: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Lapierre
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Brink5:05
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Couturier – Lycksell3:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Frost2:46
xG 0.00–0.08 (5%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates10:00
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York17:04
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 1–2
- Sanheim – Walker2:45
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker14:16
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Milano – Strome11:18
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Lapierre10:56
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas11:57
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Sgarbossa – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn7:57
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev8:31
xG 1.03–0.02 (98%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Carlson – Sandin13:23
xG 0.93–0.41 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Jensen – Sandin2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).