Fri, Mar 1, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
New Jersey Devils 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 119 | 114 | 122 | 355 |
| ANA | 27 | 27 | 09 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:24NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 18:15ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Max Jones · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:47ANAMax JonesAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Jackson LaCombe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 15:27NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:08ANAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Troy Terry, Radko Gudas · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 17:03NJDTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:14ANAPavel Mintyukov: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:41NJDCurtis Lazar: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:41ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:41NJDCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:41NJDCurtis Lazar: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 6:45NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:01ANAGustav Lindstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:40ANAGustav Lindstrom: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Penalty shot net displaced0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Lazar – Hughes4:45
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Meier – Hughes5:04
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Haula – Tierney – Mercer2:06
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier4:19
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hughes7:26
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Siegenthaler5:15
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec9:31
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Henrique – Jones11:09
xG 0.45–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry4:59
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Lundeström4:25
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Terry – McTavish3:32
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindstrom – LaCombe13:48
xG 0.75–0.70 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Vaakanainen – Zellweger12:30
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mintyukov13:20
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).