Sat, Mar 2, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 09 | 512 | 532 |
| CAR | 012 | 313 | 010 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:12CARMartin NecasAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 15:54CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 19:12CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.28 xG0–3
- P3 1:36WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:02WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Nate Schmidt, Adam Lowry · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:40WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 16:47WPGSean MonahanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:49WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Alex Iafallo, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:29WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:58CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:17WPGNate Schmidt: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:29CARJack Drury: Holding2 min
- P2 13:24CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37WPGDylan Samberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:10CARMichael Bunting: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Kupari – Gustafsson5:09
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:01
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Monahan – Iafallo3:14
xG 0.00–0.10 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Monahan – Ehlers – Iafallo5:10
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey13:02
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Stanley10:30
xG 0.25–0.50 (34%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk13:11
xG 0.40–0.94 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov7:42
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis7:28
xG 0.66–0.51 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Bunting – Necas – Drury8:17
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fast – Noesen – Kotkaniemi5:31
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin10:17
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield12:35
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce12:51
xG 0.70–1.11 (39%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).