Sat, Mar 2, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Boston Bruins 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 16 | 09 | 123 |
| NYI | 315 | 210 | 01 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Noah Dobson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:27NYIKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 12:19NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 0:46NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P2 10:24NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Bo Horvat, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.24 xG0–5
- P2 14:30BOSMarc McLaughlinAssists: Charlie McAvoy, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:11BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43NYISebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:48BOSJakub Lauko: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:48NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:44BOSLinus Ullmark: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:42BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:01NYINoah Dobson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Lauko – McLaughlin2:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak5:01
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Boqvist – Lauko – McLaughlin2:43
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk3:49
xG 0.00–0.34 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lohrei6:13
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo4:40
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Wotherspoon2:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Pageau8:41
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 3–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean4:32
xG 0.49–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nelson – Horvat – Barzal12:10
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Engvall – MacLean2:40
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho10:34
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson13:33
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Pulock – Romanov15:43
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).