Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 114 | 18 | 226 |
| PHI | 119 | 217 | 14 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Nick Seeler · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:04OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Shane Pinto, Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:13PHITyson FoersterAssists: Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:58PHITyson FoersterGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 18:02OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:59PHICam YorkENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:49OTTJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P1 8:05OTTRidly Greig: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:07OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29PHITyson Foerster: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53OTTMathieu Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:58OTTShane Pinto: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:10PHICam York: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:26PHIScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:37OTTMaxence Guenette: Interference2 min
- P3 16:01PHIJoel Farabee: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Joseph – Pinto8:09
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Kastelic2:32
xG 0.01–0.50 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:45
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Chychrun3:09
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker7:05
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Chabot – Guenette2:15
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates8:49
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost7:52
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Foerster9:14
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Couturier – Brink5:58
xG 0.02–0.35 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker11:45
xG 1.52–0.15 (91%)attempts 26–11goals 2–1
- Staal – Zamula9:30
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York12:53
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).