Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 15 | 010 | 122 |
| STL | 17 | 19 | 111 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Scott Perunovich, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:06MINJon MerrillUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:53STLJake NeighboursPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 19:11STLTorey KrugENAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:29MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:50MINZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:50STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 12:14MINVinni Lettieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:01MINDeclan Chisholm: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:50STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10MINJake Lucchini: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:34MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dewar won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy8:45
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi3:09
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi2:54
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Dewar3:56
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Chisholm11:29
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill9:33
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber11:13
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (86%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Bolduc2:30
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Kapanen7:17
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Neighbours – Bolduc4:10
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich2:29
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Perunovich5:17
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug10:48
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).