Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 010 | 16 | 330 |
| CGY | 03 | 17 | 310 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:42PITJonathan GrudenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:26PITLars EllerPPAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Sidney Crosby · Bat, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 3:37CGYYegor SharangovichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:51PITJeff CarterAssists: Ryan Graves, Noel Acciari · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:09CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 10:41CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 19:10CGYYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:13PITRickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:32CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P1 18:13CGYJakob Pelletier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:02PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:34PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:38CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference2 min
- P3 8:08CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:49PITEmil Bemstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01CGYBlake Coleman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:08PITLars Eller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Bemstrom – Gruden6:52
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen11:19
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rakell – O'Connor12:03
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari6:26
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Graves9:35
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph12:36
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:08
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:53
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Pelletier3:46
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary5:49
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko3:50
xG 0.01–0.25 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Pachal2:08
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington13:43
xG 0.80–0.77 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Pachal8:43
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).