Sun, Mar 3, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 03 | 27 | 15 | 315 |
| MIN | 011 | 214 | 27 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:41SJSMikael GranlundPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:56SJSNico SturmSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:46MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Declan Chisholm, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 7:01MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mason Shaw · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 0:23SJSAnthony DuclairUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 2:38MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 16:01MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:09SJSJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 1:19MINZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:28SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09SJSKevin Labanc: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:30MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Bailey – Sturm4:50
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Labanc – Kunin – Zadina10:56
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund11:25
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Burroughs – Okhotiuk8:56
xG 0.09–0.16 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro14:03
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–17goals 0–1
- Rutta – Thrun9:40
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:21
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Duhaime – Shaw – Dewar2:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hartman – Lettieri – Rossi4:05
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hartman – Lucchini – Rossi2:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber13:10
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Faber3:28
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Brodin14:12
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).