Sun, Mar 3, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 06 | 19 | 123 |
| EDM | 111 | 411 | 115 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:07EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:57EDMCorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:55EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 18:47EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Brett Kulak, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 19:10EDMCody CeciAssists: Warren Foegele, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 6:03EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–6
- P3 12:23PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.24 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:36EDMMattias Janmark: Interference2 min
- P2 11:22PITEmil Bemstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:05EDMBrett Kulak: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:02PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:49PITLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:46EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Bemstrom – Gruden6:56
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell3:14
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari4:38
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Puustinen – O'Connor3:09
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph14:22
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Pettersson17:35
xG 0.66–0.95 (41%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
- Ruhwedel – Graves13:03
xG 0.15–0.93 (14%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid13:26
xG 1.16–0.40 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Gagner – Brown – Holloway7:49
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Foegele – McLeod7:47
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark9:23
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:38
xG 1.64–0.46 (78%)attempts 27–11goals 3–0
- Nurse – Desharnais16:07
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak15:07
xG 0.53–0.93 (36%)attempts 15–12goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).