Mon, Mar 4, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 211 | 013 | 115 | 339 |
| CBJ | 211 | 113 | 39 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Sean Kuraly, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:11CBJAlex NylanderAssists: Alexandre Texier, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.37 xG0–2
- P1 17:19VGKMason MorelliAssists: Byron Froese · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 18:01VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 17:21CBJErik GudbransonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 3:23CBJAlex NylanderGWGAssists: Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 10:16VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Shea Theodore, Michael Amadio · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 11:20CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:49CBJAlex NylanderENAssists: Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:17CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:56VGKMichael Amadio: Holding2 min
- P3 12:19VGKPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Stephenson – Amadio14:12
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 16–11goals 2–2
- Roy – Denisenko – Cotter10:29
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Morelli7:27
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:46
xG 0.93–1.00 (48%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Whitecloud11:09
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore13:46
xG 0.99–0.81 (55%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud5:25
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Texier – Sillinger11:10
xG 0.88–0.71 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic14:15
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov9:21
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Danforth8:33
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Boqvist15:34
xG 0.75–0.53 (59%)attempts 22–19goals 1–1
- Werenski – Bean2:13
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov15:38
xG 0.82–1.12 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).