Mon, Mar 4, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
St. Louis Blues 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 113 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 225 |
| PHI | 112 | 010 | 014 | 06 | 1 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:52PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ryan Poehling, Travis Sanheim · Deflected, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 15:47STLKevin HayesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 2. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 3. PHI Tyson Foerster stopped
- 4. STL Jake Neighbours scored
- 5. PHI Morgan Frost scored
- 6. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 7. PHI Owen Tippett stopped
- 8. STL Pavel Buchnevich scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:33STLOskar Sundqvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P2 12:41PHIEgor Zamula: Holding2 min
- P3 11:21STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:14PHIMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Kapanen – Bolduc6:04
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas15:56
xG 0.76–0.61 (56%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko7:05
xG 0.03–0.18 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours11:10
xG 0.08–0.98 (7%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Krug16:54
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 23–17goals 0–0
- Scandella – Perunovich5:19
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich2:05
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Farabee – Brink3:07
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates11:26
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Foerster6:03
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Foerster8:00
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Zamula9:46
xG 0.63–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker14:42
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Staal – Walker2:35
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).