Mon, Mar 4, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 08 | 014 | 037 |
| COL | 212 | 214 | 111 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:22COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Ross Colton, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 12:38COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 17:38COLZach PariseAssists: Caleb Jones, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 15:35COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:46COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40CHIKevin Korchinski: Holding2 min
- P2 14:05COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:40COLCale Makar: Interference2 min
- P3 9:48COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:25CHIRyan Donato: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wagner won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Johnson – Raddysh9:40
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson9:45
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Donato – Kurashev – Bedard11:00
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Katchouk – Entwistle7:57
xG 0.32–0.67 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Korchinski13:34
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Jones – Vlasic16:45
xG 0.56–0.89 (39%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Tinordi – Crevier12:40
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:38
xG 0.85–0.44 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Parise – Drouin – Colton7:44
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Wood – Kiviranta7:36
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – O'Connor7:10
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jones14:30
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar13:49
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Girard – Byram13:48
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).