Mon, Mar 4, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 111 | 19 | 210 | 430 |
| CGY | 02 | 118 | 117 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Brandon Tanev, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:50CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:34SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 0:21SEAAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 7:46CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 12:29SEAJared McCannSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 14:54SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Holding2 min
- P2 7:14SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:14CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:59CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:24SEAMatty Beniers: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:24CGYBrayden Pachal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:09SEAVince Dunn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:33SEAJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:41SEAMatty Beniers: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41CGYMartin Pospisil: Checking from behind5 min
- P3 13:41CGYMartin Pospisil: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:14SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:25SEABrandon Tanev: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:25CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:25CGYBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:25SEABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:45CGYYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tatar – Beniers10:23
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – McCann8:25
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Yamamoto – Kartye5:42
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gourde – Burakovsky – Tolvanen9:36
xG 0.06–0.66 (9%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:34
xG 1.40–0.64 (69%)attempts 24–12goals 3–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:08
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:20
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Sharangovich – Pelletier3:07
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Duehr3:32
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Sharangovich3:42
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:28
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson8:51
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Hanifin7:36
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Pachal4:32
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).