Tue, Mar 5, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 211 | 17 | 11 | 430 |
| NSH | 114 | 17 | 17 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:11NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 16:39MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:45MTLDavid SavardAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–2
- P3 12:19NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:55MTLJoshua RoyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 0:17MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:23MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:12MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29MTLJordan Harris: Holding2 min
- P2 10:36NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard8:06
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:15
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy10:31
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:34
xG 0.33–1.24 (21%)attempts 12–16goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj14:25
xG 0.98–0.37 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 3–0
- Matheson – Xhekaj2:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Harris – Struble13:08
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg14:01
xG 1.40–0.12 (92%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:46
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:12
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista9:41
xG 0.02–0.67 (2%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier15:43
xG 1.28–0.10 (93%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Josi3:43
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:56
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).