Wed, Mar 6, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 215 | 06 | 08 | 229 |
| COL | 216 | 324 | 214 | 754 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Shayne Gostisbehere · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 5:15COLCale MakarAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:30DETDavid PerronAssists: Andrew Copp, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 17:07COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:49COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P2 16:12COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 19:26COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 7:12COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Ross Colton, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 15:25COLJean-Luc FoudyAssists: Joel Kiviranta · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:06COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:01DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:18COLOndrej Pavel: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:39DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:43DETOlli Maatta: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:43COLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:56DETShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56COLRoss Colton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:56DETChristian Fischer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:53DETJake Walman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32DETJoseph Veleno: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:25DETAlex DeBrincat: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Fabbri3:43
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Perron – Compher – Raymond2:54
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Fischer – Sprong – Kostin7:23
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Kane – DeBrincat – Veleno12:39
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Gostisbehere15:05
xG 0.92–0.87 (51%)attempts 18–22goals 1–1
- Walman – Seider13:16
xG 0.10–0.93 (10%)attempts 9–21goals 0–2
- Petry – Chiarot15:23
xG 0.35–1.36 (20%)attempts 11–28goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:42
xG 1.54–0.33 (82%)attempts 32–10goals 3–0
- Cogliano – Kiviranta – Foudy2:05
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Foudy – Pavel2:45
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Parise – Wood – Colton2:02
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:44
xG 1.47–0.34 (81%)attempts 28–14goals 3–0
- Manson – Girard13:42
xG 0.93–0.28 (77%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:46
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).