Wed, Mar 6, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 04 | 018 | 130 |
| ANA | 03 | 18 | 15 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44OTTMark KastelicAssists: Artem Zub, Matthew Highmore · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:42ANARyan StromeAssists: Frank Vatrano, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:27ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Olen Zellweger, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:59ANAGlenn Gawdin: Holding2 min
- P1 17:55ANAMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P1 17:55OTTParker Kelly: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:15ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:26OTTJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 10:09ANAPavel Mintyukov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06OTTBrady Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:26OTTDrake Batherson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:19OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Tkachuk – Pinto10:53
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Highmore – Kastelic – Kelly5:30
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Greig – Stützle3:13
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle6:40
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:57
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Chabot – Chychrun2:29
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Brannstrom12:31
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Silfverberg – Groulx – Regenda9:37
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Leason11:31
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Killorn – Jones – Lundeström12:00
xG 0.12–0.97 (11%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Vaakanainen – LaCombe3:44
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Lindstrom8:39
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Fowler – Zellweger12:18
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).