Thu, Mar 7, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
St. Louis Blues 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 111 | 08 | 124 |
| NJD | 216 | 110 | 17 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:24NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:04NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, John Marino · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 9:03STLBrandon SaadAssists: Scott Perunovich, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:40NJDTimo MeierAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:01NJDErik HaulaENAssists: Timo Meier, John Marino · Backhand, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:36STLNick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:44STLNick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:06NJDCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:56NJDJohn Marino: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:01NJDKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Saad – Kapanen5:56
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko9:46
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc2:43
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas9:19
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Perunovich2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich2:28
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko14:50
xG 0.46–0.67 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Meier – Hischier12:21
xG 1.15–0.05 (96%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Tierney – Lazar – Mercer9:17
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes10:02
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Nosek – Holtz6:05
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Marino14:05
xG 0.69–0.02 (98%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl13:40
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Hughes – Nemec12:39
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).