Thu, Mar 7, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 115 | 49 | 15 | 629 |
| PIT | 014 | 015 | 010 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51WSHTom WilsonSHGWGAssists: Beck Malenstyn · Bat, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:30WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 3:16WSHNick JensenAssists: Beck Malenstyn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 8:50WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 16:21WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoAssists: Dylan Strome, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–0
- P3 2:13WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Alexander Alexeyev, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG6–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:12WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:46PITRyan Graves: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:53PITJansen Harkins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18WSHBeck Malenstyn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:18PITJansen Harkins: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:51WSHMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:49WSHRasmus Sandin: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:32PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:58WSHIvan Miroshnichenko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Strome – Miroshnichenko7:47
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Sgarbossa – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn8:04
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Wilson – McMichael7:04
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Protas – Lapierre8:29
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Alexeyev7:48
xG 0.28–0.00 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Jensen – Sandin9:18
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk3:15
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith – Rakell4:49
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Eller – Rakell2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen4:28
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Eller – Rakell4:28
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:55
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Graves8:00
xG 0.04–0.30 (12%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Letang – Joseph10:57
xG 0.38–0.90 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).