Thu, Mar 7, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 111 | 19 | 01 | 331 |
| LAK | 010 | 110 | 212 | 13 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33OTTDominik KubalikPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 13:24LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Blake Lizotte, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:39OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 10:24LAKPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 11:46LAKJacob MoverareAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:37OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Artem Zub, Shane Pinto · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 2:00LAKKevin FialaGWGAssists: Matt Roy · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:06LAKAndreas Englund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:57LAKBrandt Clarke: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:42LAKAndreas Englund: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:33OTTParker Kelly: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 16:33LAKAndreas Englund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Chartier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto13:09
xG 0.82–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Chartier – Kelly – Greig8:12
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Smejkal6:01
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle11:57
xG 0.49–1.14 (30%)attempts 11–21goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub17:10
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker11:17
xG 0.56–0.47 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Chychrun – Zub2:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore12:06
xG 0.91–0.45 (67%)attempts 26–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lizotte – Byfield6:25
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Lewis – Dubois – Laferriere3:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Turcotte – Byfield6:44
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Clarke6:52
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Englund – Spence10:21
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Roy17:02
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).