Thu, Mar 7, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 7, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 413 | 18 | 733 |
| SJS | 09 | 26 | 010 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19NYINoah DobsonAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:31NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 2:45SJSThomas BordeleauPPAssists: William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 11:24NYIBo HorvatGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 11:49SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Givani Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 12:04NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Matt Martin, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 14:21NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P2 16:25NYISebastian AhoAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 8:08NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Pierre Engvall, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.02 xG7–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:50NYIBo Horvat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:48NYISebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P3 1:48SJSMikael Granlund: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:54SJSFilip Zadina: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eklund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Horvat – Barzal13:49
xG 1.15–0.46 (72%)attempts 22–8goals 4–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Pageau12:08
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom11:06
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean9:40
xG 0.47–0.52 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson17:37
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 24–12goals 2–0
- Reilly – Aho15:19
xG 1.07–0.68 (61%)attempts 14–19goals 3–0
- Pulock – Romanov17:43
xG 0.19–0.62 (24%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Carpenter – Smith10:02
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Bailey – Sturm – Bordeleau3:01
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Labanc – Kunin – Zadina3:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund3:22
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun13:19
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Addison13:44
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Ferraro16:03
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).