Fri, Mar 8, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 112 | 07 | 00 | 130 |
| COL | 112 | 07 | 017 | 14 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 10:44MINBrock FaberAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 2:32COLValeri NichushkinPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:31MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:30COLJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:55MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:17COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:07COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P3 6:32MINJake Lucchini: Interference2 min
- P3 14:05COLAndrew Cogliano: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- OT 0:42MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy11:54
xG 0.90–0.44 (67%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Rossi10:58
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Beckman5:37
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Shaw – Lucchini4:59
xG 0.62–0.99 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Chisholm14:25
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis9:22
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber15:19
xG 0.66–1.23 (35%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Trenin – Colton7:54
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Duhaime – Kiviranta2:45
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:24
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Drouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt9:50
xG 0.19–0.75 (21%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson3:22
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Girard – Walker4:50
xG 0.04–0.11 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Manson – Girard9:50
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).