Fri, Mar 8, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 6, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 320 | 26 | 110 | 636 |
| ANA | 08 | 15 | 114 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14DALChris TanevAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 17:19DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 18:56DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Sam Steel, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 5:31DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P2 6:06ANARyan StromeAssists: Frank Vatrano, Pavel Mintyukov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 14:18DALMason MarchmentAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
- P3 4:13ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 7:18DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:07DALTy Dellandrea: Interference2 min
- P1 16:16ANABo Groulx: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:56ANARadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21ANAGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 3:39DALChris Tanev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:17ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:18ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:47DALTy Dellandrea: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:18DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:21
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Stankoven2:06
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston7:57
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Hintz – Marchment2:20
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Lindell4:51
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Heiskanen – Harley9:14
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Heiskanen3:00
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry9:03
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Jones – McTavish12:03
xG 0.62–0.46 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Meyers6:54
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johnston – Groulx – Leason6:57
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Lindstrom11:29
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mintyukov16:45
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
- Fowler – Zellweger14:20
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).