Sat, Mar 9, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 110 | 013 | 132 |
| SJS | 110 | 17 | 04 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24SJSThomas BordeleauPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 9:18OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:37SJSThomas BordeleauPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:32OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:32SJSKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:09SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30SJSAlexander Barabanov: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto13:16
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle11:54
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Chartier – Katchouk – Greig3:26
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Greig3:49
xG 0.06–0.09 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Guenette10:10
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Sanderson5:03
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker9:27
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Sturm – Bordeleau7:58
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Kostin4:34
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Barabanov12:25
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund8:18
xG 0.04–0.39 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Addison11:35
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro19:00
xG 0.79–0.81 (49%)attempts 23–16goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Thrun11:41
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).