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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 9, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Philadelphia Flyers 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 7

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

0

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.

TBL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0901105025
TBL4161327726

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:49TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:55TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 9:10TBLConor ShearyAssists: Darren Raddysh, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
  4. P1 10:49TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
  5. P2 15:42TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–5
  6. P3 7:33TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–6
  7. P3 8:16TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–7
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 4:31PHIRonnie Attard: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:56PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 5:56TBLAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 9:24PHIRonnie Attard: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 10:02PHIGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
  6. P1 10:49PHIJoel Farabee: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
  7. P1 10:49PHI: Game misconduct head coach0 min
  8. P1 14:08TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 9:04TBLMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:04PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 2:00TBLDarren Raddysh: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 8:00PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 10:22TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
  14. P3 17:58PHIGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 18:01TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 18:01PHICam Atkinson: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
46% to win54% to win
← PHI attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Paul
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHITBL
25Shots on goal26
1.8Expected goals3.3
58Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won24
3Power plays4
43Penalty minutes21
46Hits16
15Blocked shots20
3Giveaways6
6Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates7:52

    xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1

  2. Atkinson – Deslauriers – Frost2:01

    xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Couturier – Konecny – Foerster4:28

    xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  4. Tippett – Frost – Farabee4:28

    xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – York6:06

    xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1

  2. Staal – Sanheim2:08

    xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1

  3. Johnson – Sanheim6:14

    xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestPaul – Sheary – Eyssimont8:12

    xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0

  2. Watson – Glendening – Motte5:07

    xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  3. Glendening – Motte – Sheary2:13

    xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Stamkos – Duclair – Cirelli10:39

    xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHedman – Raddysh11:38

    xG 0.89–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0

  2. Dumba – Raddysh2:03

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  3. Cernak – Perbix8:37

    xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.3 xGPHI 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1295 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.49 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.

TBL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).