Sat, Mar 9, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 08 | 112 | 132 |
| WSH | 312 | 18 | 06 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: John Carlson, Aliaksei Protas · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:45WSHMichael SgarbossaGWGAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 13:36WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.34 xG0–3
- P2 17:24WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 9:49CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Zachary Sanford · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:23CHIJoey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:40CHIJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P1 13:17CHIJarred Tinordi: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:17WSHMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36CHIRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:30WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:16WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:06WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Sanford – Raddysh8:30
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson7:16
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard12:23
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson8:06
xG 0.32–0.61 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Megna – Korchinski10:29
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic13:30
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Tinordi – Megna2:01
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Wilson – McMichael10:11
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sgarbossa – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn7:56
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Protas – Lapierre8:20
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Milano – Strome – Miroshnichenko11:05
xG 0.53–0.74 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – van Riemsdyk14:01
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Bear – Sandin2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bear – Alexeyev9:49
xG 0.41–0.66 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).