Sat, Mar 9, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 06 | 213 | 326 |
| VGK | 219 | 012 | 35 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:36VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:32DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Moritz Seider, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 2:44DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 10:07VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Brendan Brisson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:44DETShayne GostisbehereAssists: Michael Rasmussen, David Perron · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 17:16VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 18:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:50DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P2 4:19DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 6:12VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12DETJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:04VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Veleno – Berggren – Raymond8:53
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat13:05
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen9:28
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Veleno2:31
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holl – Gostisbehere12:10
xG 0.66–0.92 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Petry – Maatta15:32
xG 0.42–1.07 (28%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider16:26
xG 0.36–1.07 (25%)attempts 10–21goals 1–3
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:00
xG 1.65–0.18 (90%)attempts 25–5goals 2–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter8:20
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Mantha – Dorofeyev9:32
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Brisson7:52
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin13:56
xG 1.18–0.49 (71%)attempts 24–9goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:03
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud11:04
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).