Sun, Mar 10, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 012 | 217 | 442 |
| PIT | 013 | 012 | 016 | 041 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08EDMConnor McDavidGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 8:53EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 10:42EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 15:58EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P1 13:27EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:14PITJeff Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:44EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:40PITEmil Bemstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:35EDMWarren Foegele: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:35PITJohn Ludvig: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:35EDMWarren Foegele: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35PITJohn Ludvig: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35PITJohn Ludvig: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 17:05PITBryan Rust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:54PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:59EDMVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Kane – Brown8:48
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:20
xG 0.86–0.93 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod11:11
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Ryan4:53
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:24
xG 1.02–0.78 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Ceci – Kulak14:14
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Nurse – Desharnais12:33
xG 0.60–0.93 (39%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Bunting12:19
xG 1.16–0.78 (60%)attempts 21–15goals 0–2
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen12:33
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Acciari – Gruden5:03
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – Bemstrom6:27
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves13:04
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ludvig2:52
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Joseph – Ludvig3:13
xG 0.03–0.02 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).