Sun, Mar 10, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 110 | 18 | 01 | 330 |
| MIN | 111 | 17 | 114 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16MINJonas BrodinAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 9:00NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:36NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Tommy Novak, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 18:42MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 12:28MINRyan HartmanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:58NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:50MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:57MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:21MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:56NSHKiefer Sherwood: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:56MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:26NSHRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
- P3 17:13MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista9:29
xG 0.84–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith7:30
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Sissons – Beauvillier9:59
xG 0.20–0.41 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg12:20
xG 0.14–0.75 (16%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Lauzon5:26
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn9:32
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Josi3:07
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy11:27
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Beckman9:14
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Rossi9:02
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lettieri – Shaw – Lucchini4:40
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin18:52
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Merrill – Chisholm11:08
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber17:13
xG 0.27–0.89 (23%)attempts 15–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).