Sun, Mar 10, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 02 | 19 | 19 | 220 |
| CAR | 216 | 414 | 110 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30CARJordan MartinookAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 17:43CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 0:17CARJalen ChatfieldGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 1:15CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 4:11CGYDryden HuntAssists: Oliver Kylington, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 13:55CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P2 19:26CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 4:54CGYYegor SharangovichUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG2–6
- P3 17:14CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:37CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:04CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:18CGYBrayden Pachal: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:18CARBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:18CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P3 1:14CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHunt – Rooney – Duehr2:36
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Rooney – Sharangovich2:49
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Rooney – Duehr – Coronato3:50
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Pelletier4:58
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hanley – Miromanov12:11
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Kylington – Pachal12:53
xG 0.16–1.05 (13%)attempts 3–18goals 0–2
- Weegar – Andersson16:06
xG 0.42–1.46 (22%)attempts 15–27goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov9:42
xG 1.46–0.27 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 2–1
- Kuznetsov – Noesen – Necas12:44
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:46
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Fast – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi8:30
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:28
xG 1.52–0.22 (87%)attempts 33–8goals 2–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:18
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 24–5goals 4–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:38
xG 1.03–0.69 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).