Sun, Mar 10, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 36 | 06 | 37 | 619 |
| ANA | 04 | 110 | 09 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11NYICasey CizikasAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 7:28NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 14:28NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 0:24ANAAlex KillornAssists: Max Jones, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 0:34NYIBo HorvatAssists: Brock Nelson, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 7:56NYIPierre EngvallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 18:12NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Matt Martin, Kyle MacLean · Snap, 0.16 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:04ANAGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 12:17ANAAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:17ANAAlex Killorn: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P1 17:08NYINoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:08ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:08NYIAlexander Romanov: Holding2 min
- P2 12:39ANALukas Dostal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:27ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:27NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom8:37
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean7:24
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Nelson – Horvat – Barzal9:35
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Pageau9:11
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov11:57
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 8–12goals 3–0
- Reilly – Aho8:53
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Pelech – Dobson13:13
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Jones – McTavish9:42
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Meyers7:54
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry8:23
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Johnston – Groulx – Leason7:04
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Zellweger14:50
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – LaCombe9:54
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Gudas – Mintyukov12:21
xG 0.43–0.99 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).