Mon, Mar 11, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 5, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 27 | 15 | 522 |
| BOS | 012 | 012 | 113 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13STLKasperi KapanenAssists: Torey Krug, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:59STLRobert ThomasPPGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 4:31STLKevin HayesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Matthew Kessel · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 15:25STLBrandon SaadAssists: Kevin Hayes, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–0
- P3 1:48BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 11:27STLAlexey ToropchenkoENAssists: Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.48 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:53STLBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
- P1 13:55BOSJake DeBrusk: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:47BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49BOSTrent Frederic: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:40STLOskar Sundqvist: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:13STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Saad – Kapanen9:46
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 3–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko4:58
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc6:39
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas9:44
xG 0.25–0.84 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Krug – Kessel10:20
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:15
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko13:34
xG 0.45–1.01 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBrazeau – Boqvist – Lauko10:12
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – DeBrusk2:37
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie6:32
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk4:58
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:17
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo7:32
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei7:12
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).