Mon, Mar 11, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 07 | 17 | 120 |
| NYR | 012 | 28 | 16 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:25NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 19:08NYRErik GustafssonGWGAssists: Zac Jones, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–2
- P3 17:26NJDSimon NemecAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:47NYRVincent TrocheckENAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:32NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:00NYRKaapo Kakko: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:32NJDAlexander Holtz: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:40NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:10NYRAdam Fox: Interference2 min
- P2 16:02NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:30NYRMatt Rempe: Elbowing5 min
- P2 19:30NYRMatt Rempe: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30NJDKurtis MacDermid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:52NJDErik Haula: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Meier3:24
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes5:17
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Nosek – Holtz2:08
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Meier – Hischier4:25
xG 0.03–0.29 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Bahl3:36
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Bahl – Nemec2:15
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Bahl4:35
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic9:01
xG 0.47–0.38 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière8:36
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Rempe4:20
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle6:02
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:01
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Jones10:16
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Schneider11:27
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).