Tue, Mar 12, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 022 | 08 | 011 | 041 |
| MTL | 38 | 011 | 04 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Jake Evans · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:15MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 5:48MTLJoshua RoyAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Alex Newhook · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:56CBJMathieu Olivier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:16MTLJayden Struble: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 8:41MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:19CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:19MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:42MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16CBJBrendan Gaunce: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:25CBJCarson Meyer: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Texier – Sillinger2:40
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Chinakhov2:05
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander8:13
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Olivier – Meyer3:12
xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov12:51
xG 0.76–0.25 (76%)attempts 27–6goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:00
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Bean9:30
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Evans8:38
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:24
xG 0.72–0.58 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy7:39
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Pearson – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard4:56
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj10:15
xG 1.10–0.11 (91%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Matheson – Guhle11:53
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle2:22
xG 0.04–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).