Tue, Mar 12, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Anaheim Ducks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 115 | 05 | 229 |
| CHI | 118 | 36 | 37 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39ANABrett LeasonSHAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:27CHIRyan DonatoPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 1:51ANABrett LeasonAssists: Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:25CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 11:49CHISeth JonesPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 19:31CHIConnor BedardAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:43CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 3:10CHIPhilipp KurashevPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.16 xG2–6
- P3 10:06CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev · Snap, 0.21 xG2–7
Penalties (21)
- P1 9:36ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:20CHINick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 10:36CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:43ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:12ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:59ANAWilliam Lagesson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:00ANABo Groulx: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:00CHIReese Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 3:00ANABo Groulx: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:18CHIPetr Mrazek: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 9:18ANAJohn Gibson: Goalie leave crease2 min · PPG
- P3 9:18CHIJarred Tinordi: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18ANAPavel Mintyukov: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:18CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:18CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18ANAJohn Gibson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18ANARadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18CHIReese Johnson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18CHIPetr Mrazek: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJohnston – Groulx – Regenda5:53
xG 0.48–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Meyers8:42
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Leason5:36
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:38
xG 0.20–0.89 (18%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLagesson – Vaakanainen11:30
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Fowler – Lagesson2:21
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Zellweger2:12
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Kurashev – Bedard9:52
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson5:57
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson8:48
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Athanasiou – Raddysh9:21
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Megna3:02
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Jones – Vlasic11:11
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Korchinski2:27
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).