Tue, Mar 12, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 6, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 119 | 516 | 03 | 638 |
| CGY | 29 | 010 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 3:24CGYDaniil MiromanovAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 6:46CGYWalker DuehrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brayden Pachal · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:52COLJosh MansonAssists: Sean Walker, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 5:50COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 7:53COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 14:10COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P2 19:14COLMikko RantanenAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:13CGYMartin Pospisil: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 3:35CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:51COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:58CGYBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:23CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:26COLMiles Wood: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:37COLFredrik Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen10:51
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 20–9goals 3–0
- Drouin – Duhaime – Mittelstadt8:18
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Wood – Trenin – Colton10:10
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:03
xG 0.09–0.41 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:58
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Manson – Girard12:50
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Walker12:03
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil7:28
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Sharangovich2:00
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rooney – Sharangovich – Coronato2:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rooney – Sharangovich – Pelletier2:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov13:07
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Pachal – Okhotiuk2:50
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hanley – Okhotiuk2:38
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).