Tue, Mar 12, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Seattle Kraken 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 215 | 29 | 13 | 534 |
| SEA | 09 | 113 | 36 | 02 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:14SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jared McCann, Tye Kartye · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:36VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:00VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 1:55SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Will Borgen, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:21SEABrandon TanevAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Kailer Yamamoto · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:30SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 12:23VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:43VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 3:01VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:42VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:55SEATomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P1 13:00VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:45SEABrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev9:30
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Stephenson – Mantha – Howden10:05
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter7:22
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:40
xG 0.18–0.55 (25%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin15:12
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 1–2
- Hague – Whitecloud10:56
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Theodore – Hanifin2:36
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tatar – Beniers10:54
xG 0.71–0.22 (77%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Kartye7:50
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Bellemare – Tanev – Yamamoto6:34
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:18
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:29
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Larsson – Evans2:14
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Evans12:19
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).