Wed, Mar 13, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 2, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 010 | 010 | 225 |
| EDM | 310 | 211 | 216 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:58EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 8:30WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 10:55WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P1 11:24EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P2 14:13EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.18 xG2–4
- P2 19:08EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 10:43EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan McLeod, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.20 xG2–6
- P3 11:00EDMConnor BrownAssists: Evander Kane, Adam Henrique · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:05WSHNic Dowd: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 6:25WSHDylan Strome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:19EDMRyan McLeod: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:05EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24WSHT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:21EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Lapierre6:48
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Wilson – Lapierre2:11
xG 0.01–0.06 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Milano – Strome – Miroshnichenko8:21
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn9:02
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Sandin8:13
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Bear – Fehérváry5:35
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bear – Sandin2:53
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:13
xG 1.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Perry – Carrick – Janmark6:58
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod8:18
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:38
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard15:23
xG 1.47–0.39 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Ceci – Stecher11:53
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Nurse – Desharnais13:43
xG 0.34–1.18 (22%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).