Wed, Mar 13, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 110 | 217 | 11 | 434 |
| VAN | 26 | 112 | 03 | 00 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Ian Cole, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 2:44VANIlya MikheyevAssists: J.T. Miller, Nikita Zadorov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:23VANNikita ZadorovAssists: Conor Garland, Casey DeSmith · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 19:57COLMikko RantanenAssists: Devon Toews, Casey Mittelstadt · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:19COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 8:43COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:30COLValeri NichushkinPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Deflected, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:08COLJosh Manson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 5:00COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:00VANNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 1:45VANElias Pettersson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:04VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:11COLJoel Kiviranta: Interference2 min
- P3 19:51VANCarson Soucy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Boeser
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTrenin – Duhaime – Mittelstadt10:24
xG 1.11–0.39 (74%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – Kiviranta10:17
xG 0.92–0.35 (72%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen13:43
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard8:55
xG 1.53–0.21 (88%)attempts 22–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson2:05
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Girard – Walker2:24
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Mikheyev11:50
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Di Giuseppe – Blueger – Lafferty7:36
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Suter – Hoglander8:05
xG 0.05–0.51 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Garland – Podkolzin7:50
xG 0.16–1.24 (11%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy16:01
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 7–23goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes16:33
xG 0.66–1.27 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Juulsen8:54
xG 0.14–1.06 (11%)attempts 2–13goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).