Thu, Mar 14, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 0, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 06 | 010 | 021 |
| BUF | 013 | 316 | 18 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:28BUFVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: JJ Peterka, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:15BUFDylan CozensAssists: Connor Clifton, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:41BUFZach BensonAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Owen Power · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 15:06BUFZach BensonENAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.77 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:09NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41NYISimon Holmstrom: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 15:14BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:37NYIAlexander Romanov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:29BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:08BUFConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:08NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:47BUFJordan Greenway: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom8:22
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean5:34
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Horvat – Barzal12:15
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Pageau9:33
xG 0.08–0.82 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Reilly – Dobson2:14
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:50
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Pelech – Dobson10:45
xG 0.11–0.42 (20%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Cozens – Benson8:56
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Peterka9:40
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Tuch – Thompson8:44
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Robinson8:45
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson9:53
xG 0.53–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power12:26
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Byram12:16
xG 0.63–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).