Thu, Mar 14, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 013 | 26 | 05 | 2 | 337 |
| CBJ | 19 | 09 | 119 | 00 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 5:21CBJAlex NylanderPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P3 7:25OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Boris Katchouk, Mark Kastelic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 12:27OTTTim StützleAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 2. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 3. CBJ Alexandre Texier scored
- 4. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko stopped
- 6. OTT Claude Giroux scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:18CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min
- P1 18:00OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:27OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:43CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P3 4:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:00CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Kastelic – Kelly7:34
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle11:45
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto13:48
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Greig – Ostapchuk7:05
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:05
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 24–25goals 0–1
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker13:17
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Guenette15:51
xG 0.51–1.07 (32%)attempts 22–24goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Olivier – Meyer9:24
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger12:30
xG 0.35–0.48 (43%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander12:44
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Fix-Wolansky – Voronkov – Pyyhtia7:35
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bean5:46
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov6:08
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Severson3:43
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).